Revenue:
Automotive Revenue
Key Health Stats:
Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q2 2023 | |
| Annual Revenue and Growth Rate ($Billions) (trailing 12 months) | $96.773 | $95.924 | $94.028 |
| Annual Revenue Growth Rate (trailing 12 months) | 18.79% – rate slowing | 28.1% -hurt by competition at high end and price cuts to counter high interest rate | 40% |
| Annual Revenue Growing Sequentially (trailing 12 months) | No – slowing | No | |
| Annual Income (trailing 12 months) | $4.31 | $3.11 | $3.53 |
| Annual Income growth rate (trailing 12 month) | 19% | -3.85 % – hurt by price cut | Yes 27.9% |
| Annual Income Growing Sequentially (trailing 12 months) | No – slowing | No | |
| EV Manufacturing Competitive Advantage. Tesla is producing EVs at scale. | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Price Advantage. Tesla has pricing advantage and can maintain healthy profit margin | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Public charging advantage and offered as infrastructure service to other OEMs | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| EV Range 300 miles Advantage | No | No. Rivian, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai reached parity and have offerings over 300 miles. Lexus RZ 450e range is 220 miles. | Neutral |
| EV 0-60mph Acceleration Advantage | No | No. Rivian, BMW, Mercedes, Polestar have cars that can go 0-60 mph under 5s. Lexus RZ 450e 0-60mph is 5.0 | Neutral. |
| Full self driving in City and Highway. Tesla has the edge but product still in development. Competition offers hands free on high definition mapped freeways but not in city streets. | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Cybertruck Production Ramp and Demand Healthy | Yes | Yes – Ready for first delivery end of November | Yes |
| Utility Scale Energy Storage Solution Demand Growing and Healthy | Yes – $1.438 B 10% yoy | Yes – $1.559B and grew 40% yoy | Yes |
| Lower cost next generation vehicle development progressing to increase addressable market | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Optimus robot making progress, leveraging work on vision based AI for FSD | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Solar roof installation business growing and healthy | No – 59% drop yoy. | No – -48% decline yoy and a decline of -34% sequentially. hurt by by high interest rate |
External resources:
| https://mainstreetdata.com/tsla | Latest Stock Quote (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/historical) | Latest Consensus Stock Price Target (https://teslapricetargets.com) |
Overview:
Tesla (TSLA) is a technology company with a mission to transition the world to sustainable transportation. It is doing that with AI vision powered, smart, connected electrics cars, grid energy storage with lithium batteries, and solar roofs that generate clean energy from the sun.
The electric car revolution is taking off. Tesla is leading the charge and they have proven to the auto industry that the technology for an electric car is ready. Consumers worldwide are now aware of the risk of climate change and are ready to transition to electric cars and away from fossil fuel. Tesla has solved key challenges of building an electric car and driving one. Tesla Model Y and Tesla Model 3 are currently the best selling premium electric cars in North America, Asia, and Europe. As a pioneer in electric cars, they currently lead in the following areas:
- Manufacturing efficiency
- Watch Tesla robots in their Giga Berlin factory produce the Model Y from this February 13 2023 tweet from Tesla.
- Use of Giga Press to produce single die cast replacing 70+ metal parts using 7300 tons of force producing 16 parts/min.
- 600+ robots weld together stamped parts and castings
- 1k factory workers in General Assembly install seats, HVAC, drive units, and electronics parts.
- Safety, crash prevention and crash protection
- AI vision based driver assistance
- Range
- Performance
- Charging Support for long distance travel and convenience
- Mobile repair service
- Online ordering and delivery experience
- Internet enabled infotainment
2023 Milestones and accomplishments
Introduced new refreshed Model 3 in China, Europe, and Australia.
Cybertruck went into production and delivered to customer
2022:
Customer demand around the world is high. Orders in US can take weeks and months to fill during most of 2022. Interest rate hikes in US and Europe has reduced demand starting in late 2022. Reduction of EV subsidies, economic impact of COVID in China has also also hurt demand toward end of 2022. At the start of 2023, Tesla has drastically reduce price in China to cover the expiration of EV subsidies. In the US, the EV credit will start in 2023 and should help with demand.
To satisfy EV demand, Tesla expanded production capacity in 2022. New factories in Berlin and Austin started production and ramped up in 2022. Giga Berlin reached 4k /week Model Y production in February 2023 and the next month reached 5k/week production rate in March. Giga Texas reached 4k/ week production rate in April 2023. Fremont and Shanghai have increased capacity also.
New Products Pipeline
Refresh on Model Y
Second generation low cost Model 2
Full Sell Driving Version 12 Neutral Network based AI end to end.
Gigafactory in Mexico build out
Products further out
Robotaxis will reuse AI technology they have on Model 3/Y. For this product to be ready, the FSD feature needs to be rock solid since driver will not be present.
Optimus Humanoid Robot leverage the AI vision developed for FSD to allow them to sense their environment and perform work that may be dangerous or difficult for humans.
Automotive Inventory Level
On August 10, 2023, twitter user @Mattjungphoto announced tesladata.mattjun.net has ceased operation permanently because his site has been blocked by Tesla. The following no longer works.
US Tesla Model Y inventory level reported on tesladata.mattjun.net as of April 29 2023 shows weakness for the high end Model X. Model S level is at its average level but is rising. Model Y inventory is healthy and below average. Model 3 inventory is above average and is rising.
Inventory data is sourced from https://tesladata.mattjun.net.
Total New Inventory for last 365 days
Almost realtime Tesla US automotive inventory level
Current Products
Battery Cells
Tesla mades battery cells in the Nevada Gigafactory with their partner Panasonic. Expansion is underway in 2023 to create facility to produce 100Gwh of 4680 cells. Battery cells go into battery packs for cars, power walls, and Megapack utility scale battery storage.
Model 3/Model Y
Model 3 covers the premium car market. Model Y competes in the premium compact SUV market.
| Model | Range | EPA | Top Speed | Horsepower /Torque /Electric Motor | 0-60mph | Price 11/03/2023 | Price 5/2/2023 | Price 4/20/23 | Price 4/8/2023 | Price Before 4/8/2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Y RWD | 260 | 135 | 6.6 | $43,990 | ||||||
| Model Y AWD | 279 | 129/116/123 | 135 | 91kW+200kW AC 3-phase | 5.0 | NA | $47,240 | $46,990 | $49,990 | $51,990 |
| Model Y Long Range | 330 | 127/117/122 | 135 | 425/475 91kW+200kW AC 3-Phase | 4.8 | $48,990 | $50,240 | $49,990 | $52,990 | $54,990 |
| Model Y Performance | 303 | 115/106/111 | 155 | 455/487 133kW+179kW AC 3-Phase | 3.5 | $52,490 | $54,240 | $53,990 | $56,990 | $58,990 |
| Model 3 Standard | 272 | 138/126/132 | 140 | 192kW AC 3-Phase | 5.8 | $38,990 | $40,240 | $39,990 | $41,990 | $42,990 |
| Model 3 Long Range AWD | 358 | 134/126/131 | 98kW + 198kW AC 3-Phase | 4.2 | $45,990 | $47,240 | ||||
| Model 3 Performance | 315 | 129/116/123 | 162 | 131kW + 190kW AC 3-Phase | 3.1 (w/ rollout subtracted) | $50,990 | $53,240 | $52,990 | $52,990 | $53,990 |
According to Q4 2022 Earnings Slide 9, Vehicle Capacity. Tesla can produce them at these rates:
California Model 3/Model Y: 550,000
Shanghai Model 3/Model Y: >750,000
Berlin Model Y: >250,000
Texas Model Y: > 250,000
Total Model 3/Model Y: 1.8 Million.
Model S/Model X
Model S is a full size premium luxury car. The top Model S Plaid has set a lap record at the Nürburgring race track for production, unmodified EV vehicle. It completed the lap in 7 minutes, 35.579 seconds, averaging 164.615 km/h on September 9, 2021 based on the latest post 2019 start/end test procedure that covers the full 12.944 miles of the track . The video is available on YouTube. To compare with pre 2019 start procedure specified by German magazine Sport Auto, Elon Musk also tweeted the old method’s time which is 7:30.909, average speed 166.320 km/h for the 12.8 mile layout). A pre-production Porsche Taycan Turbo ran the 12.8 miles layout in 7:42 by test driver Lars Kern.
Model X is a full size SUV with the powered gulf wing doors that can open in tight spaces. At the the of this writing, the
Model S Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive , 405 miles, 149mph, 3.1s
| Model | Range (miles) | EPA city/hwy/combined MPGe | Top Speed (mph) | Horsepower | 0-60mph | Price 11/03/2023 | Price 9/27/2023 | Price 4/8/2023 | Price Before 4/8/2023 |
| Model S Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive | 405 | 124/115/120 | 149 | 670 | 3.1 | $74,990 | $74,990 | $84,990 | $94,990 |
| Model S Plaid Tri Motor All-Wheel Drive | 396 | 119/112/116 | 200 | 1020 | 1.99 | $89,990 | $89,990 | $104,990 | $114,990 |
| Model X Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive | 351 | 107/97/102 | 149 | 670 | 3.8 | $79,990 | $79,990 | $94,990 | $109,990 |
| Model X Plaid Tri Motor All-Wheel Drive | 333 | 103/93/98 | 149 | 1020 | 2.5 | $94,990 | $89,990 | $104,990 | $119,990 |
Production capacity:
California Model S/X: 100,000
Semi Truck
Tesla is moving into the long haul trucking market. It started shipping its Semi Truck at the end of 2022. Their first delivery was in December 1st to Pepsi. Nevada Gigafactory will be expanded to mass produce the Semi Truck.
Superchargers
Superchargers uses DC to directly delivery electricity at a high rate to the car’s battery to recharge the car. 200 miles can be added to a car in 15 minutes. Globally Tesla has 40,000 superchargers. They eliminate range anxiety and enable care free long distance travel on electric cars. In Europe, superchargers are enabled for Tesla and non Tesla cars. Superchargers are built in Gigafactory 2, in Buffalo New York factory.
Solar Energy: Solar Roof, Solar Panels
Auto Insurance
Tesla vehicles track driving metrics such as sudden braking, hard cornering, lane departure, collision warnings and following distance and the driving hours. There’s report that night time driving have a higher accident rate. These and other metrics are used to compute a safety score. Using this data, Tesla can provide an insurance quote that match the risk of insuring a driver. They can offer discounts on insurance for safe drivers and promote safe driving. By offering competing insurance service, Tesla owners get better insurance rate both if they use Tesla Insurance or to another provider.
Massive Energy Storage: Megapack
Megapacks are utility scale battery storage modules used by utilities or industry. Utilities can use these to store intermittent energy sources route as solar or wind energy. They can also use these to store excess energy. During excessive energy demand on the grid, these batteries can supplement energy and help avoid blackouts.
Production capacity at Lathrop: 10k / year according to https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1608552552152301575
Shanghai Megabuck factory planned for 2024 w/ 10k/year production capacity based on Tesla Twitter official account: https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1645115732760436739
Residential Powerwall Battery Packs
These residential units provide power to homes when the Sun is not shining at night for solar roof owners or when there is a power outage. They can also be used to manage energy cost by charging the pack at night at lower energy cost and releasing the energy during the day when energy is more expensive. Powerwalls are produced in Gigafactory 2.
Company Scorecard
| Metric | Q4 2023 | Q3 2023 November 4, 2023 | Q2 2023 September 27, 2023 | Q1 2023 April 20, 2023 | February 5, 2023 | September 29 2022 | Notes |
| Price | $182.63 (1/25/2024) | $219.96 | $240.50 | $162.99 | 189.98 | $268.21 | |
| Revenue TTM | 23.329+24.927+23.350+25.167=$96.773 | 24.318+23.329+24.927+23.350=$95.924 | 21.454+24.318+23.329+24.927=$94.028 | 16.934+21.454+24.318+23.329=$86.035 | 18.756+16.934+21.454+24.318=$81.462B | ||
| Year Ago Revenue TTM | 18.756+16.934+21.454+24.318=$81.462 | 17.719+18.756+16.934+21.454=$74.863 | 13.757+17.719+18.756+16.934=$67.166 | 11.958+13.757+17.719+18.756=$62.19 | 10.389+11.958+13.757+17.719=$53.823 | ||
| Earnings per share EPS TTM | 0.73+0.78+0.53+2.27=4.31 | 1.07+0.73+0.78+0.53=$3.11 | 0.95+1.07+0.73+0.78=$3.53 | 0.65+0.95+1.07+0.73=$3.4 | 0.95+0.65+0.95+1.07 = $3.62 | ||
| Year Ago Earnings EPS | 0.95+0.65+0.95+1.07=3.62 | 0.68+0.95+0.65+0.95=3.23 | .48+.68+.95+0.65=$2.76 | .34+.48+.68+.95 = $2.45 | 0.39+1.02+1.44+2.05 = $4.90 Adjusted for 1:3 stock split. $4.90/3 = 1.63 | ||
| PE | 42.37 | 70.73 | 68.13 | 47.94 | 52.49 | 97.78 | |
| Estimated Next Earnings EPS | .74+.87+.924+1.054=$3.588 | .81 + .89 + .98 +1.1=$3.78 | .85+.92+1.02+1.11 = $3.89 | ||||
| Forward PE | $240.50/$3.588=67.0 | $162.99/$3.78= 43.12 | 48.8 | 55.8 | |||
| PE/Growth Ratio (PEG) | 68.13/27.9=2.4 | 47.94/39=1.2 | 52.49/122=.4876 | 1.94 | |||
| Annual Income Growth | 100*(4.31 -3.62)/3.62=19% | 100*(3.11 -3.23)/ 3.23=-3.7% | 100*(3.53-2.76)/2.76 =27.9% | 100*(3.4-2.45)/2.45 =39% | 100*(3.62 – 1.63)/1.63=122% | 50.4% | Revenue /Income based on Q2 2022 slide deck |
| Annual Revenue Growth | 100*(96.773-81.462)/81.462=18.79% | 100*(95.924-74.863)/74.863=28.1% | 100*(94.028-67.166)/67.166=40.0% | 100*(86.035-$62.19)/$62.19 = 38.3% | 100*(81.462 – 53.823)/53.823= 51.4% | 42% | |
| Easy to analyze demand | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | ||
| Products in high demand | Flat Hertz rental company selling 1/3 of its EVs. | Demand dropping due to higher interest rate | Demand declining due to macro and higher interest rate, and strong competition. Price cut to maintain demand, factory output equilibrium | Yes with reduced prices | Yes | Yes | January 13 Update, Demand seen weakening in China with deliveries lower YoY in China but with price cuts demand may be rising again. Model 3 and Model Y outsell all other luxury brands |
| High customer satisfaction with product | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Products solve an important problem | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes, transportation sector account for 17% green house gas emission globally and 30% in US. Electric cars reduce reliance on fossil fuel, reduce CO2 greenhouse gas and improve climate impact. (source Tesla 2021 Impact report) |
| Attract Engineering Talent | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 2nd top choice among 2021 engineering graduates according to Universum 2021 Survey as reported in Tesla 2021 Impact report. |
| Superior products | In FSD software. Range and accelerate matched or excelled by competition at higher price. | In software and public charging. Competition catching up range and acceleration | Yes, some products in China catching up | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
| Glassdor Employee approval rating of CEO | 71% | 71% | 72% | 73% |
Intrinsic Value using Discount cash flow analysis
References:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/pe-ratio
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TSLA
2022 Q2 presentation slides: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/delivery/public/document/tesla/abc3824a-2111-4551-b957-d69b9ad97b35/S1dbei4/WEB/tsla-q2-22-update
Battery cell energy density https://www.batemo.com/products/batemo-cell-explorer/panasonic-ncr2170-m/