The end of US EV credits in September move forward purchases to Q3 2025 at the expense of Q4 2025 deliveries. The China EV market is fiercely competitive. NIO, XPeng, and Xiaomi products are well made and priced competitively. They have gained in Q4 2025. In Europe, Tesla deliveries has declined.
| Manufacturer | Q4 2024 Deliveries | Q4 2025 Deliveries | Change | % Change | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 495,570 | 418,227 | -77,343 | -15.6% | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 |
| Rivian | 14,183 | 9,745 | -4,438 | -31.3% | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 |
| NIO | 72,689 | 124,807 | +52,118 | +71.7% | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 |
| XPeng | 91,507 | 116,249 | +24,742 | +27.0% | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 |
| Xiaomi | 69,697 | ~130,000-135,000 | +60,000-65,000 | +86-96% | Q4 2024 | Q4 2025 |
Tesla Energy Storage division is bright spot. They delivered a quarter record 14.2 kWh. Q4 2024 energy delivery was 11 Gwh. In total for 2025, they delivered 46.7 GWh. Demand for this product is high as it expands the usable power from existing power plants and demand is high due to AI datacenter build out by hyperscalers and neoclouds.
source:
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024-production-deliveries-and-deployments
In 2026, Rivian is expected to begin R2 production. This will help them expand their addressable market as their current R1s are out of reach for majority to car shoppers in the US. The midsize SUV R2 starts at $45,000 and will have 300 miles range. Some models can accelerate 0-60 mph in 3s. Rivian has also pivoted to develop in house the self driving software and AI chip following the Tesla playbook. In the second half of 2026, they plan to be using the next gen R2 self driving platform using lidar and its own silicon called RAP1. It is expected to to have 1600 sparse INT8 TOPS. Rivian’s self driving Automomy+ feature can be purchased for a one time cost of $2,500 or $49.99 monthly. It will work on US and Canada roads.
Source:
For 2026, Tesla hopes to be producing the 2 seater Robotaxi. They will expand Tesla Semi production. Tesla had delayed the removal of safety driver in its robotaxi in 2025. They will try again to reach that milestone in 2026. Tesla next gen AI5 chip expands to sample latest 2026. Vehicles using AI5 expected around mid 2027. This means for 2026, all Tesla cars will continue to use HW4.