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Current yield curve rates indicate recession coming

Yield Curve is a table of interest rates on U.S. bonds at different maturities or loan durations.

This data is available from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The 2023 data is available at https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2023

The 1/3/23 the tables looks like this:

1 Mo2 Mo3 Mo4 Mo6 Mo1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr5 Yr7 Yr10 Yr20 Yr30 Yr
4.174.424.534.704.774.724.404.183.943.893.794.063.88
Yield Curve 1/3/2023

   

The curve is considered inverted now as of this writing on 1/4/2023. Normally bond investors demand a higher interest rate for longer term bonds since the future is more uncertain and the money is locked in for a longer period. A 15 year mortgage loan typically has a lower interest rate than a 30 year mortgage loan. Now the 10 year bond is actually cheaper than a 3 month bonds. This indicator predicts that market participants anticipate a recession on the horizon and the current short term interest rates are uncertain and are likely going to need to drop to pump up the economy.